Donald Trump has had a lot of success in business, but how will
he be for the economy as president? Here's how his economic policies
will play out.
Editor's note: This story was originally published in October
2015. As Donald Trump is inaugurated as the 45th president of the United
States, it is worth taking a look at what the U.S. economy might look
like under his proposed policies. Also, check out our Donald Trump Stock Portfolio,
a list of 15 stocks that could do well under President Trump. The
introduction and the sections below on immigration, taxes and trade have
been updated.
There's no denying Trump has done a good job of making himself rich -- he's worth somewhere between $4.5 billion and $10 billion, depending who you ask. Can he make the rest of America rich, too?
Trump
was inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States on Friday,
becoming perhaps the most unanticipated figure to ever enter the Oval
Office. The economy will be at the top of Trump's agenda as president
and serve as the most important barometer of his performance.
On
the campaign trail, Trump admitted the economy wasn't something he
looked forward to tackling. In a January 2016 interview with "Good
Morning America," he offered up a bleak assessment and added that, in
terms of fixing it, it's a task he'd rather skip.
"We're
in a bubble," he said. "And, frankly, if there's going to be a bubble
popping, I hope they pop before I become president because I don't want
to inherit all this stuff. I'd rather it be the day before rather than
the day after, I will tell you that."
In a subsequent April interview
with the Washington Post, Trump reiterated his doomsday view of the
economy, suggesting we might be headed for recession. But that time
around, he appeared more open to the idea of his being in charge of
finding remedies.
"I can fix it. I can fix it pretty quickly," he said.
He'll soon have a chance to put his -- or rather, our -- money where his mouth is.
Trump was the 2016 election cycle's most riveting figure. He initially focused his attention on immigration reform, calling for a wall to be built between Mexico and the United States and demanding the deportation of 11 million
undocumented immigrants. He has wavered on that last point, now promising to initially focus on criminal undocumented immigrants, but he has stuck to his guns on the wall.
He later rolled out other policies and positions: a major tax code overhaul; repeal and replace Obamacare; renegotiate or "break" NAFTA; stop hedge funds from "getting away with murder" on taxes; reforming the Veteran's Administration; and impose import tariffs as high as 35%.
All while keeping the deficit in check, growing the economy and leaving
entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security untouched.
Those who fear Trump's plans should find common cause with those who love them: "I'm not sure how much of what he actually says today will
be his positions a year from now," said Michael Busler, professor of
finance at Stockton University.
"Take Trump seriously, but not literally," has become a common refrain. Trump's own campaign suggested he is playing "a part" to garner votes.
While
Trump certainly has some grandiose ideas -- and equally lofty rhetoric
to accompany them -- deciphering the exact nature of his economic
policies is a complex task. Not to mention he won't have a free pass
from Congress, even though it remains under Republican control.
Here are some insights into what the U.S. economy and markets look like
under President Trump if he is able to push his agenda through Congress.
Trump's Expensive Immigration Plan
Trump's immigration plans cost him a handful of business deals, but they might cost the United States much more.
The American Action Forum, a right-leaning policy institute based in Washington D.C., estimates
that immediately and fully enforcing current immigration law, as Trump
has suggested, would cost the federal government from $400 billion to
$600 billion. It would shrink the labor force by 11 million workers,
reduce the real GDP by $1.6 trillion and take 20 years to complete
(Trump has said he could do it in 18 months).
"It
will harm the U.S. economy," said Doug Holtz-Eakin, president of the
American Action Forum and chief economic policy adviser to Sen. John
McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. "Immigration is an enormous source
of economic vitality."Check Out TheStreet's Donald Trump Stock Portfolio.
A number of industries that depend heavily on cheap immigrant labor
would be devastated -- especially agriculture. "There would be an abrupt
drop in farm income and a sharp rise in food prices," said
John McLaren, professor of economics at the University of Virginia with
expertise in international trade, economic development and the political
economy.
Companies
that sell to the immigrant population would be affected as well,
leading to decreased revenues for local businesses and a loss of
American jobs.
"Immigrants,
whether they are legal or illegal, always spend a portion of their
earnings in the location where they have their jobs," McLaren said. "And
in a lot of our urban centers, this is actually an important part of
the economy."
He pointed to the case of Postville, Iowa,
where in 2008 U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raided a
slaughterhouse and meat packing plant, detaining 389 undocumented
workers (and jailing 300 of them). The raid caused most of the more than
1,000 immigrants not caught to leave the town of 2,300, devastating the
local economy in the process.
He also noted his own research,
which suggests each immigrant creates 1.2 local jobs for local workers,
most of which go to U.S. natives. "Obviously, those jobs would
disappear if the undocumented were just yanked away," he said.
It is worth noting that Trump appears to have backed away from his
mass deportation stance slightly, outlining priorities that would lead
to the deportation of what The Washington Post estimates
would be 5 million to 6.5 million immigrants. He has warned, however,
that "anyone who has entered the United States illegally is subject to
deportation."
Trump has also discussed reducing the number of jobs held by legal
immigrants, namely by increasing the prevailing wage requirements for
H-1B visas (visas that allow U.S. employers to recruit and employ
foreign professionals) -- an element of his plan that is often overlooked.
His thesis is that doing so would force companies to give jobs to
domestic employees instead of overseas workers. The maneuver would
benefit some, but not most.
"If
I'm an American software programmer, I probably would benefit somewhat
from making it harder for highly-skilled software programmers from
elsewhere," McClaren said. "It's really hard to argue that the country,
as a whole, benefits from that. It would be bad for most Americans, and
it certainly
would be bad for corporations."
An
extreme anti-immigration policy could also cause collateral damage to
the American image. "What's the American brand after we've rounded up 11
million people and sent them packing?" said Jim Pethokoukis, a
columnist and blogger at the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right think tank based on Washington, D.C. "Do people still view America the same way?"
Perhaps it's a good thing the real estate magnate's immigration plans are essentially impossible to implement in full.
Tax Cuts for Everyone, and Deficits, Too
Trump's tax plan,
unveiled in September, is perhaps the most detailed proposal he put
forth while campaigning. It entails implementing tax cuts across the
board, though some in the middle class would see their tax bills go up.
"His tax plan is one of the most dynamic and pro-growth tax plans out there," said Merrill Matthews, resident scholar at the Institute for Policy Innovation,
a Texas-based, right-leaning think tank. "You would find a huge amount
of new business investment and companies willing to put their money out
there to begin growing the economy."
Trump's tax plan stacked up fairly well
against his fellow Republican presidential primary contenders. It
wasn't as drastic as proposals put forth by Ted Cruz and Ben Carson but
did, like most GOP tax structures, favor the rich.
Perhaps the biggest distinguishing feature of Trump's proposal is his
hard cap on business taxes at 15%, which might be especially appealing
to freelancers and the self-employed.
But
there's a catch: Trump's tax plan would reduce revenue enormously, and
the federal budget deficit would almost inevitably skyrocket.
Nonpartisan tax research group the Tax Foundation calculated that
Trump's plan in its original form would cut taxes by $11.98 trillion
over the course of a decade. It would lead to 11% growth in the GDP,
6.5% higher wages and 29% larger capital stock as well as 5.3 million
jobs. However, it would also reduce tax revenues by $10.14 trillion,
even when accounting for economic growth from increases in the supply of
labor and capital.
"That
tax cut would produce faster economic growth and a bigger economy -- as
long as you pay zero attention to the fact that it would dramatically
increase the deficit and budget debt," said Pethokoukis.
Trump in August adjusted his platform,
calling for a top income tax rate of 33% rather than a past plan for
25% as well as the full expensing of capital investment and a deduction
for childcare costs.
An updated version
of the Tax Foundation's analysis determined Trump's more fleshed-out
tax plan would reduce federal revenue by between $4.4 and $5.9 trillion,
depending on how it handles pass-through businesses. The group noted that
the change would reduce the revenue loss from his original plan, but it
would depend significantly on how wide the new bracket thresholds are.
Trump
has promised to reduce spending, though he hasn't explicitly said how.
Moreover, he has said he will maintain entitlement programs like Social
Security and Medicare, two of the costliest parts of the federal budget.
"If
there weren't any spending cuts that materialized, you would see the
deficit widen substantially the moment the plan was enacted," said said
Alan Cole, an economist with the Center for Federal Tax Policy at the
Tax Foundation.
In
the face of such an enormous deficit, creditors might begin demanding
higher interest rates on U.S. bonds, and the markets would be spooked.
"I
can't imagine markets would react well to it. I can't imagine global
investors looking to relocate will look on a United States that is
driving deliberately over a fiscal cliff," said Holtz-Eakin. "Sending
the U.S. into a debt spiral where you're borrowing interest on previous
borrowing will generate a market reaction that will be far from benign
and that will, I think, in the end overwhelm the beneficial effects."
Of
course, just because Trump hasn't yet explained how he will cut
spending doesn't mean he won't. "It's not unusual for a politician to
say, 'I'm going to cut spending,' and not give specifics," Matthews
said.
Check Out TheStreet's Donald Trump Stock Portfolio.
Changing Views on Health Care Health
care appears to be the number one item on Trump's and Congressional
Republicans' agenda. The GOP has already taken steps to begin the
process of rolling back the Affordable Care Act, and Trump
has said he will fill in the blanks on repealing and replacing
President Obama's signature law once his Health and Human Services
Secretary, Georgia Representative Tom Price, is confirmed. In his 2000 book, The America We Deserve,
Trump touted universal health care and laid out an ideology on the
subject that, frankly, looks pretty un-Republican. On the campaign
trail, he promised to "take care of everyone." But his campaign health care plan, released in March, sang a different tune. While
campaigning, the Trump camp outlined a seven-point plan for health care
in America, including the repeal of Obamacare, the allowance of
purchases of health insurance across state lines and block-grant
Medicaid to states, among other things. "This
strikes me as a mixture of what is mostly Republican orthodoxy...with a
couple of oddball proposals," said Roger Feldman, professor of health
policy and management at the University of Minnesota. One of the unique
aspects of the plan: allowing consumers to re-import drugs from
overseas. At
a February town hall event hosted by CNN, Trump was critical of
Obamacare, noting that "rates are going up 25, 35, 45, 55 percent." He
emphasized that he was not receiving campaign money from insurance or
pharmaceutical companies "so I can do what's right."
"I
don't think [Trump's health care proposal] is based on economic
analysis, I think it's based on channeling a populist dislike of
insurance executives," said Feldman. "If he really tried to do the
things he said he would do the insurance industry would be in the
crosshairs." The
ability for consumers to buy their health insurance in other states is
perhaps the health-related proposal Trump discussed most on the campaign
trail. The idea is not new -- such a bill was introduced in Congress a
decade ago -- but it is impactful. When
pressed for detail on his plan at the February 25 Republican debate
hosted by CNN, Trump focused on the state lines issue, repeating on a
handful of occasions his proposal to get rid of "the lines" around each
state "so we can have real competition." "You
get rid of the lines, it brings in competition," he said. "So, instead
of having one insurance company taking care of New York, or Texas,
you'll have many. They'll compete, and it'll be a beautiful thing." "I
think it could be a potentially significant improvement in insurance,"
Feldman, who in 2011 co-authored a paper on consumer response to a
national marketplace for individual health insurance, said. "It would do
that by allowing people to buy insurance in states with fewer
regulations, and that would, in turn, cause a restructuring of the
health insurance industry." Based
on a pre-Obamacare baseline, Feldman and other researchers concluded
such a system would result in seven million more people being insured by
opening up the insurance markets to more competition. Of course, not everyone agrees. "It
doesn't actually achieve you much," said Matthews, pointing out that a
policy in another state may not translate to access to the network of
physicians and pre-negotiated prices locally-purchased policies often
afford. "It's not a bad idea, but it is no panacea." Too Tough on Trade? Trump
likes to talk trade. And while has said he is a "free trader," he has
also clarified he doesn't like the deals the U.S. has done, such as NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The Art of the Deal author has promised to negotiate better agreements. "One
of the things that's often lost is that [Trump] has a strong business
background, he understands how commerce works," said John Hudak, a
fellow in governance studies at Washington, D.C.-based think tank the Brookings Institution.. "He has more business training than any American president we've ever had." Check Out TheStreet's Donald Trump Stock Portfolio.
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